576
FXUS65 KGJT 191728
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1028 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS COME TO A CLOSE FOR OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES.
- ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND,
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO FORECAST EVOLUTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
A WAVE WORKING ASHORE IN THE PACNW THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE RIDGE BUILT OVER THE WEST EASTWARD. SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ELK HEADS AND PARK RANGE THIS MORNING, BUT
QUICKLY GET STARVED OUT BY THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AND ADDITIONAL
SUBSIDENCE. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL TODAY, THE
IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO
STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE PACNW DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY MILD TODAY AND NEAR NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY TO JUST ABOVE. HIGHS NEAR 40 ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS CRESTING NEAR 50
TODAY. FOCUS TURNS TO THIS EVENING AS A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE DOVETAILS INTO THE
STRONGER JET FEEDING THE MORE POTENT MIDWEST STORM. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A HANDSOME SHOT OF PWAT TO THE REGION AND A NEW ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH FOR OUR SAN JUANS TOO, BUT THE LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE APPEARS TO SQUELCH DEVELOPMENT. I THINK
SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 550 CORRIDOR AT THE PASS LEVEL COULD COVER
ROADS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO FILL IN FIRST AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING THERE WILL BE STRONGER. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. PV FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
PICK UP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, A TREND THAT CONTINUES INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE STATE LINE. HAVE HELD OFF ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS STORM AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE PROTRACTED NATURE
OF THE EVENT AND MODEST SNOW RATES. SHOULD MODELS PIVOT TOWARDS
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS, I COULD SEE THE TARGET OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGHLIGHTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THANKS TO HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MIXING DOWN SOME
COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXITING OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS BY SUNRISE. REMNANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
DRYING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE GFS
SOLUTION SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS HEWED TOWARD THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY BOTH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WHICH FAVORED CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY,
BELIEVE THE LOW CHANCES INDICATED IN THE LATEST MODEL BLENDED
SOLUTION ARE REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWESTERLIES BRINGS A LOW END CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS AGAIN DIVERGED SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE BY
THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE LOWER VALLEYS CAN EXPECT
READINGS IN THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUNNISON VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
THIN, HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND START LOWERING, GIVING WAY TO BROKEN SKIES.
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, CLOUDS WILL START TO BECOME OVERCAST AS
MIDLEVEL CEILINGS SET UP. KVEL AND KHDN MAY SEE VCSH AFTER 06Z
AS CEILINGS AT BOTH AIRPORTS DROP TO AROUND 4 TO 5K FEET. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR MVFR
AFTER 06Z ONWARDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
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