326
FXUS65 KGJT 200442
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINS TONIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AND BRINGING 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, 2-6 TO REMAINING RANGES.
- ROUNDS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
AS EXPECTED, TODAY HAS BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE, WITH
JUST A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-
FEBRUARY TODAY, DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS ARE THANKS TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE JET
STREAK EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF I-70 BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BRING THE BEST SNOW RATES OF THE STORM, AND THE PEAK
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE OUT THE BEST WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, EVEN THE
SAN JUANS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK
INTENSITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT WITH ROAD SURFACES LIKELY
STILL WARM FROM THE WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WET ROADS AND
MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS STORM.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SNOW RATES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE,
THE EASTERN UINTAS, PARK, ELKHEAD, AND FLAT TOPS RANGES ARE LOOKING
AT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 3-6
INCHES OF NEW SNOW, AND THE SOUTHERN RANGES ARE LOOKING AT 2-4
INCHES. FOR THE NORTHERN RANGES, SNOW TOTALS DO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY, BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF FOR
THE TIME BEING. WITH THE LONG DURATION OF THE STORM, THIS AMOUNTS TO
1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS, WHICH IS HARDLY ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT. ADDITIONALLY, WITH IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE PERIOD OF
PEAK INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THERE JUST ISN'T MUCH
JUSTIFICATION FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE THE MIDNIGHT
CREW REEVALUATE, HOWEVER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL RUN
MILD THANKS TO SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS NEAR TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RUN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE POLAR FRONT JET SETS UP
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVING SAID THAT, SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BRING LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WILL BRING AN INCH OF NEW SNOW...MAYBE...TO THE
SAN JUANS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE SOLUTIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM AT THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT AGAIN, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS ANY LIFT OR FORCING. SO
MUCH SO THAT ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER IDAHO AND BY THE TIME
IT REACHES OUR CWA, WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. THIS IS THE
WAY THE EC IS LEANING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME EXCEEDINGLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE NBM SOLUTION IS COMPLETELY DRY WHICH
CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN AND THOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY COME ASHORE
ACROSS THE PACNW, THE LOCATION OF THE JET AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WILL PUSH THE MAJORITY OF SNOW AND RAIN NORTHWARD. NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY GET CLIPPED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK
OF SAID PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT CONFLICTING GUIDANCE KEEPS
CONFIDENCE LOW IN EITHER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, HOWEVER, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND UNDER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, DROPPING KASE, KEGE, AND KRIL BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TOMORROW MORNING, AT WHICH TIME KGJT AND KHDN MAY ALSO
REACH ILS BREAKPOINTS. ALL OF THESE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS VISIBILITY DETERIORATES HEADING
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY IMPACT KMTJ AND KGUC AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF TAF PERIOD, BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME, ONLY VCSH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THEIR TAF'S.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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