097
FXUS65 KGJT 201212
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
512 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS, AS THE LATEST WINTER STORM
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
- SCATTERED LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON FRIDAY
BRINGING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, WEBCAMS AND KGJX RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS,
FORCING RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS DUE IN PART TO
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA TO SOUTHWEST NEVADA. ADDITIONAL
FORCING PROVIDED BY WEAK OVERRUNNING, POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AT MID-LEVELS AND DIVERGENCE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 100+ KNOT JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH.
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO JUST WEST OF THE GREEN RIVER, THEN SPREADS INTO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO MODELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THERE ARE MINIMAL. MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS PORTEND RAIN WITH A MIXED RAIN/SNOW FROM ROUGHLY 5300 TO
6000 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES.
SHOWERS REMAIN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING DESPITE THE BURGEONING
CLOSED LOW SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH OROGRAPHICS WORKING ON WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SNOW
GOING, SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT, SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED,
MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL OUTPUT, SNOWFALL GENERATED DURING THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY FALL WITHIN A 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE.
CONSEQUENTLY, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR
THIS EVENT.
DESPITE VERY MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR, BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THOSE
RECORDED WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SINCE CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, DESPITE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CWA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NUDGE A PINCHED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE WAY AND TURN OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER DARK
AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AROUND THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESPOND UPWARD UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FORECASTED. ANOTHER
PACNW STORM FLATTENS THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DETERMINISTIC
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY ANEMIC
AT THIS POINT AND THIS COULD TURN INTO JUST SOME CLOUD COVER
AND SOME FLURRIES HIGH UP ON THE MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN REPEATS
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST,
POTENTIALLY DRAGGING A WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO. MODELS ARE TOYING WITH THIS ONE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, ANOTHER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST. THERE IS SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUILDING IN AND QUIETING THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT, BUT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP LOOKS
POSSIBLE UNDER THE MODELED SCENARIO TODAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ASIDE FROM KDRO, ALL
TAF SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. KVEL, KHDN, KRIL, KEGE, KASE AND KTEX CAN
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KVEL, KHDN AND
KASE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NL
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