311
FXUS65 KGJT 202353
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
453 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS AS
THIS SYSTEM WORKS TO THE FRONT RANGE.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
LINGER ON FRIDAY BRINGING LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
NOTHING LIKE A COMPACT LATE WINTER STORM TO KEEP YOU HUMBLE AS
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP MOST OF THE DAY. THIS IS
HAS BEEN MAINLY DUE TO THE PTYPE STAYING IN THE SOLID
FORM...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND DELAYING ANY CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE MAIN MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION UPSTREAM OF US THIS MORNING WHICH IS NOW STARTING TO
SWING EASTWARD. GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE COOL SIDE AND THE PV STREAM ROTATING
INTO THE LOW DEFINITELY HELPED TO RELEASE INSTABILITY. THIS WAS
EVIDENT IN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RADAR RETURNS WITH GOOD
BEEFY DENDRITES FALLING THROUGH THE PERFECT ZONE AND LEADING TO
SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...AT LEAST ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE PV
LOBE HAS SCOURED OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT A FEW PEAKS OF SUN
ARE SHOWING UP IN WESTERN COLORADO AND WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER
MIXTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION. A
GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACKS THROUGH...ARRIVING TO THE FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES LOOK TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE TRAVEL IMPACTS ON THE APPROACH TO AND
OVER THE HIGHER PASSES BUT ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD
ISSUES AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON WINTER HEADLINES ATTM.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AS WE BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AND INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS REACHED. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
MOVING IN AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT
BEST WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE FOUND TODAY IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FILTERED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AROUND.
CONTINUED CLEARING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SWINGING BY TO THE
SOUTH, WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
BRING CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
WHILE BY SUNDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE THAT'S BRINGING THIS WARMTH WILL BE FLATTENED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, WITH FORECAST PWAT
VALUES RUNNING 150-170% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE FORCING
REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS IT STANDS, OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, MAYBE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND VAIL PASS. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS IN
ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP ANOTHER 2-5 DEGREES
OVER MONDAY'S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE KICKS
IN. GUIDANCE ISN'T OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS WAVE EITHER, WITH
THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS NOT ONLY KEEPING THE BEST FORCING TO OUR
NORTH, BUT ALSO LIMITING AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SO THE WESTERN SLOPE IS
LIKELY TO SEE SOME CLOUDS, MAYBE A FEW LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS, BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH. COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. GUIDANCE WANTS
TO SHIFT THIS RIDGE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING IT. SO STAY
TUNED, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE TASTE OF LATE SPRING TO ROUND
OUT THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES WITH REDUCED ILS CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SHOWERS. VFR WILL
OCCUR OTHERWISE WHEN SHOWERS AREN'T IMPACTING THE TAF SITE.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH
VALLEYS AS WELL THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS. LOW
CIGS AND VSBY LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY
DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES AND EASTERN MOST VALLEYS LIKE KHDN, KASE, KEGE AND KGUC.
SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
CLOUDS OVER THE DIVIDE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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