255
FXUS65 KGJT 220457
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
- A WARMUP BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND SKIES PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
OUR SYSTEM FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS IS NO HEADING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEAVING BEHIND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR INSTABILITY TO KEEP SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS GOING ALONG
WITH REBUILDING CU. DO EXPECT MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
DISSIPATE NEAR/AFTER SUNSET BUT PBL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TOMORROW BEFORE MIXING OUT. THIS COULD MEAN REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THE GUNNISON AND UINTA BASINS AND ALONG THE YAMPA RIVER VALLEY
ARE SOME PLACES TO MONITOR LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE OUR
FORECAST IS TRENDING MUCH DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TOMORROW
LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY BESIDES SOME POSSIBLE CU DEVELOPMENT.
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS DROPPING OUT OF WY/UT WILL SIGNAL
THE NEXT OPEN WAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
REALLY DON'T SEE MUCH TIME FOR THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO GET PRIMED
BUT THERE COULD BE FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AS THIS PASSES THROUGH IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE CLEARER
SKIES...MOST PLACES. HIGHS TOMORROW GAIN 5 OR MORE DEGREES
TOMORROW AND SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE SHOULD PLATEAU SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY SNOW TRACES ARE LIKELY
TO PLATEAU FOR A WHILE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST SYSTEM HAVING MOVED EAST OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS, A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN, BUT A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PUSHING IN
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST KEEP THE RIDGE KNOCKED DOWN FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH MID WEEK. INITIALLY A COLD POOL OF AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC FEEDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN STATES KEEPING COLDER
AIR ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE THE ZONAL FLOW ADVECTS A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) TO THE NORTH WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION, A FEW
INCHES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS, LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
BE MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS WE'RE STARTING INTO MORE OF A SPRING WEATHER PATTERN, THERE IS
WIDE DISPARITY AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES JUST THREE DAYS INTO
THE MODEL RUN, THUS IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH VARIATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE SNOW FORECAST FOR THE PARK RANGE, BUT EVEN WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
LEVELS. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND THE WARMER TO
THE SOUTH. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT MONDAY WILL HEAT
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TO TEN TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT WITH THE
WAA PUSHING AR MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH, THESE SHOWERS WILL ONLY
BRING A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES TO THE HIGHER PEAKS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY, BUT THURSDAY WILL
WARM RIGHT BACK UP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS WIDE DISPARITY
AMONG THE MODELS LENDING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST EVEN IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS. FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS THERE IS
NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST; SUCH IS A SPRING-TIME PATTERN. THAT
BEING SAID, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPRING SYSTEM
SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FORM OF A
BOWLING BALL LOW ROLLING IN OFF THE PACIFIC THAT TYPICALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER BEFORE EJECTING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE SYSTEMS CAN BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, BUT IT'S WAY TOO SOON TO
KNOW FOR SURE. THE MODELS VARY WILDLY ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 934 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST TAF SITES. LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS MAY KEEP KASE, KEGE, KRIL AND KGUC BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z, AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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