809
FXUS65 KGJT 221719
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MOST MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY JUST CLIP THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DAY BY DAY REACHING CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES MONDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTS TODAY AS THE NEXT
FEW SYSTEMS THAT COME ASHORE WILL BE FORCED TO THE NORTH AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS, SOME RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES AND A SMALL BUMP (2 TO 4 DEGREES) IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HEADING TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AS AN OPEN
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THERE'S A SLIM CHANCE FOR MAYBE A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT NOT HOLDING OUT MUCH HOPE. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MOVED WELL TO OUR EAST SO LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIGHT SEE A FEW LOW CLOUDS LIKE WE'RE SEEING THIS MORNING
IN AND AROUND HAYDEN AND GUNNISON BUT THESE WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED, IF THEY FORM AT ALL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NEIGHBORS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE MAY
JUST CLIP THE ELKHEADS AND PARK RANGE ALLOWING AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW TO FALL THERE. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB WITH HIGHS INCHING
UP ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES FROM THOSE SEEN TODAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ANCHOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM PATTERN LOCKED IN FOR THE WEST SLOPE NEXT WEEK.
SORRY SNOW LOVERS, THIS WINTER HAS BEEN CHALLENGING. SOME GOOD
NEWS...PERHAPS...NON-ZERO SNOW CHANCES WILL HANG ON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIPPLES
GLANCES THE ELKHEADS AND PARK RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, THANKS TO THE WARM AIR UNDER THE
RIDGE. PRESENTLY, MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW. AGAIN, VERY SMALL AMOUNTS HERE. THE
AFORMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN OUR LOW VALLEYS AND DESERTS WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE
60'S FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. DOWN IN THE DESERT, AROUND MEXICAN
HAT, UT HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70'S. THIS TREND WILL PREVAIL
IN THE MOUNTAINS TOO. HIGHS IN THE 40'S CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS APPROACHING 50'S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE DIRTY RIDGE IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TOO.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE ISOHEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TRYING TO USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT BEHIND
THE BIG RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY TAMP DOWN THE
EXCESSIVELY WARM LATE WINTER CONDITIONS. AGAIN, SORRY WINTER
LOVERS, THIS IS A TRYING TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...DB
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