041
FXUS65 KGJT 270602
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1202 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
- A FEW SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS
RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGHS. THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE LOW CHANCE FOR LOW
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO LEAVE THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT
THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE LEAVING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LOWS LOOK TO BE
MILD GIVEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. TOMORROW THE TROUGH STUCK UNDER THE
RIDGE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND IT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE MINOR AND SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10
KFT. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS COULD
END UP KEEPING LOCATIONS FROM BREAKING THOSE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE LONG-TERM STORY REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME IN THAT ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BEYOND,
THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. TO KICK OFF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER, WE LOOK
TOWARDS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE LATE-WEEK, THOUGH THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THE TIMING OF THE FROPA BACK LITTLE BY LITTLE
WITH AN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE MORE AND MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH
EVERY RUN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND
6PM MDT THOUGH. DETERMINISTIC IVT FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE PWAT
ANOMALIES (160-210% OF NORMAL) CONTINUE SUGGESTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BOLSTER OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WE
ARE STILL ONLY TRENDING TOWARDS MILD TO MODERATE QPF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL KEEP RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BEGIN THIS ACTIVE STRETCH.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL AS THE PACNW TROUGH
BEGINS ITS TRANSIT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ARRIVING AT OUR
CWA LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRACKED THE
SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS LEAVES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE IMPACTS OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. WHAT IS LIKELY, HOWEVER, IS THAT THE COOLER
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MORE SNOW-DOMINATED PERIOD IN THE
MOUNTAINS, YET RAIN-DOMINATED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A THIRD SHORTWAVE MAY PASS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY,
THOUGH WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE
WEEKEND, THERE'S LITTLE CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME IF THIS
FEATURE WILL PRESENT ITSELF OR NOT. WHATEVER THE DETAILS ULTIMATELY
BOIL DOWN TO WHEN THE TIME COMES, IT'S APPARENT THAT WE ARE IN STORE
FOR A LENGTHY STRETCH OF MILDLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
ON THE TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THESE SHOWERS IS LOW. MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST TAF SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD CALM AFTER 00Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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