828
FXUS65 KGJT 271723
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1123 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
- A FEW SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING CONTINUED STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS TODAY REACHING 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES IN SOME AREAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL START OFF THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW,
ADDING A LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND A BIT OF LIFT,
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 200 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP WITH THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER ACCORDING TO HI-RES CAMS.
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KEEPING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER AS YET ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE PACNW
COAST. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AS
BETTER PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AS PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASE TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS
A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO START THE DAY WITH
SPREAD INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE MILDER AIR
WITH ONLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET MSL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE SHORTWAVES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S AND
NEAR 40 IN SOME AREAS, WITH ANY NEARBY SHOWERS ENHANCING GUSTS
TEMPORARILY AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS DEFINED BY PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR STRONG ADVECTION OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS WEEK. PWAT ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WITH EACH MODEL RUN, AND NOW ARE FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 170-230% OF NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHILE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ELEVATED. ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN BEING
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY AS TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA, AND WILL STAY AROUND
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND AND APPROACH
OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY THIS
TIME, DROPPING PWAT ANOMALIES TO 125-150% OF NORMAL DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. REGARDLESS, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND MAY ALLOW FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW RATHER THAN
RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. ALTHOUGH,
UNSURPRISINGLY, AT THIS POINT IN TIME MODEL DISCREPANCIES KEEP
CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT SPECIFIC IMPACTS MAY LOOK LIKE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO APPEARING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST TERMINALS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED, THOUGH KTEX HAS A HEIGHTENED CHANCE AT
SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION, THUS VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS
TAF THROUGH 00Z. ALMOST ALL TERMINALS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH PICKING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KEGE AND KHDN THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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