049
FXUS65 KGJT 280605
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1205 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
- TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER, GUSTY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
- SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH AMOUNTS OF 4-10
INCHES GENERALLY ABOVE 8 KFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MORE
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH HAS ADVECTED MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THEREFORE DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND IN SOME CASES THEY MAY ONLY ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
ALLOWED RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE PLACES WHERE
CLOUDS DEVELOP SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
MEAN RECORD HIGHS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT SO WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE IN
THE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALL OF THIS EQUATES TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH IN THE
EVENING. AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-40 MPH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ON PEAKS AND RIDGES. A BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 9 KFT,
BUT DROP TO 7- 8 KFT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH PRECIP RATES
WILL ALLOW SNOW TO REACH SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AS OF NOW SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW AROUND 8 KFT ARE ONLY A FEW INCHES. ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION THE AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 3-8 INCHES BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY WITH ENSEMBLE-INDICATED PWAT'S AROUND 120-160% OF NORMAL
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS MAY CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL CONSIDERING THE GFS
IS HINTING AT A MILD, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING MID-DAY SATURDAY. EITHER WAY, THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE SUITABLE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NEAR-SEAMLESS TRANSITION INTO THE MID-
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. THIS ARISES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE PACNW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, REACHING THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF I-70, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
FAILED TO COME INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING MANY OF THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM, SUCH AS TIMING AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING
DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH, BRINGING SNOW LEVELS TO 5-7KFT THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, SO UPPER VALLEYS SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOULD IT BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE THERE.
AS VOLATILE AS MODELS ARE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES WITH
500MB RIDGING OCCURRING TO OUR NORTH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW LOCALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, DESPITE THE ECMWF AND GEFS
SUGGESTING THAT OUR MOISTURE CONTENT WILL HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP
FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND, 30-60% POP'S ARE STILL PRESENT NORTH OF
US-50. MODELS DIVERGE TUESDAY, BUT CLUSTERS ARE KEYING IN ON A
BROAD TROUGH IMPACTING THE WESTERN CONUS AS WE DIVE INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND'S QUICK-HITTING TRAIN OF STORMS IS AT
THE FOREFRONT OF INTEREST RIGHT NOW, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY DEVELOPMENT REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL MID-WEEK TROUGH AS WE
GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN BKN TO OVC SKIES BY THE
EVENING. A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY, AND
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD CALM AFTER 00Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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