431
FXUS65 KGJT 282004
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
204 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SNOW
FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
- AFTER A BREAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ANOTHER STORM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH AMOUNTS OF 4-10
INCHES GENERALLY ABOVE 8 KFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MORE
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE WAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THAT MOISTURE
IS IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS, BUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL
START TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS FORCING INCREASES. POCKETS OF
SUN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS. WINDS ARE STRONG
TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH COMMON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS
MAY ENHANCE THOSE GUSTS UP TO SPEEDS OF 50 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE BETTER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PWAT ANOMALIES PEAK AT 200+ PERCENT OF
NORMAL THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE BETTER QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH TO START, AT ABOUT 9000 TO 9500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FAVOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET, WITH AROUND 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER THE PARK RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLAT TOPS. DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS ROADS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MELT A LOT OF SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND PLACES NEAR TREELINE. THESE ROADWAYS COULD GET MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES EAST OF THE
DIVIDE, SO LOOK FOR AN OVERALL BREAK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERING TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF SHOWERS THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
SO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION, IF NOT A FEW TICKS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COMES IN THE
MIDDLE OF OUR STEADILY UNSETTLED PATTERN OF QUICK-HITTING
SHORTWAVES, BRINGING BRIEF BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA.
SUNDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF A MODERATE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. AS POP'S AND QPF DECREASE
HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY, SO DOES THE SNOW LEVEL TO ABOUT
5500 TO 6500 FT. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH, LEAVING VALLEYS
WITH LITTLE IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ASIDE FROM
THE US-40 CORRIDOR WHERE POP'S REMAIN OVER 50%.
LATE SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE CWA
ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE NOW-
DEPLETED MOISTURE CONTENT LEAVES THE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY
UNSUSTAINABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG RIDGES. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS MOSTLY-ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
THIS WEEKEND'S SERIES OF RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVES,
TUESDAY'S STORM IS SHAPING UP TO BRING FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND MODERATE PWAT'S (130-180% OF NORMAL) WHICH MAY
YIELD THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER DURING THE LONG-TERM. THE NBM
IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT MEAN
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING THAN ANY OF THE STORMS
THIS WEEKEND, SO OUR INTEREST HAS CERTAINLY HEIGHTENED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER HAD MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP. BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON, MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS
FROM THIS PASSING STORM. KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KMTJ, KTEX, KGUC,
AND KHDN WILL LIKELY REACH ILS BREAKPOINTS AND FALL TO MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS. TO ADD, STRONG GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME LOWER
ELEVATION TERMINALS MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, LOW CIGS AND VIS MAY BE SUSTAINED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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