754
FXUS65 KGJT 290951
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
351 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FAVORING THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FEET WITH MAINLY WET ROADS.
- AFTER A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN TO
THE REGION.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVERHEAD AND LIFTING
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND RATES ARE MOSTLY
LIGHT AT THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN PRESENT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND NOT A REAL SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL FOR CAA, SO
PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE
MILD AIR WITH SNOW LEVELS ROUGHLY AROUND 9000 FEET. LOOKING AT
WEBCAMS AROUND THE REGION, ROADS STILL REMAIN WET WHERE SNOW HAS
FALLEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. SOME
HIGHER PASSES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY SUNRISE AS
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WHICH MAY BE UP TO 4 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BASED
ON SOME SKI AREA SNOW STAKE CAMS AT MOUNTAIN TOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH MAYBE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AT MID
MOUNTAIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, MOUNTAIN
SNOTELS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE ACCUMULATION AND A DECREASING
TREND FROM YESTERDAY, INDICATING SOME SNOW MELT DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IS ALREADY
INDICATING CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH THIS AREA OF CLEARING
WORKING SW TO NE...SO ANTICIPATE IMPROVING TRENDS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND HI-RES CAMS ALL SEEM TO INDICATE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY DAYBREAK THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO HEAT
UP THE SURFACE AND ACT ON INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO POP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE IN THE 200 TO 400
J/KG RANGE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND OVER THE REST OF THE
WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS SO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE SOME
ISOLATED STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT, THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS BUT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH
MAINLY WET ROADS DUE TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...SO NUDGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. INSTABILITY DECREASES BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO
MOUNTAINS, ACCUMULATION AND RATES EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
CONCLUSION OF THE MID-WEEKEND STORM. BETWEEN THE MID-WEEKEND
STORM AND THE ONSET OF THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
BEGINNING SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SHOULD RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL DURING THE LULL, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST. THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH, AT THE MOMENT THE ELEVATED MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY, WITH FORECASTED PWAT ANOMALIES AROUND
130-180% OF NORMAL. THE GFS ENS SUGGESTS ANOMALIES ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS,
WHILE THE ECMWF ENS GENERALLY KEEPS THE GREATEST PWAT ANOMALIES
BELOW 160% OF NORMAL. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE PASSING SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, SO IT
IS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO HOW PWAT ANOMALIES TREND IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR AVERAGE ON MONDAY TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD HELP TRANSITION RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES TO
SNOW, PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO APPROACH
OUR CWA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST SITES
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS, BUT A DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN SITES WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SITES MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES
DURING PERIODS OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BUT WILL WORSEN
AGAIN AFTER 18Z, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT
KTEX AND KDRO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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