004
FXUS65 KGJT 292123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT, AND BOUTS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST. MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE VERY LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FT
(70-90% CHANCE) FROM SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON,
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, A TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BRINGING OUR NEXT BOUT OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH, BRINGS A QUICK-HITTING 2-4"
OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PARK RANGE. OTHER AREA MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL SEE A TRACE TO 2" OF LIGHT SNOW. A FEW SLICK SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES BUT WILL NOT CAUSE MUCH
DISRUPTION TO EVERYDAY LIFE. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A DRY, SEASONABLE SUNDAY IS ON TAP FOR MOST. LINGER LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER
THAT, MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. WITH FORECASTED ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1", IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MONDAY BEGINS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF THE
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING FUELS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF KCAG IN THE MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST. SHOWERS INCREASE AND SPREAD WEST TO THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY RISES AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PACNW LOW.
IMPACTFUL SNOW BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE PACNW LOW KICKS EJECTS A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WITH
CYCLOGENESIS FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY EVENING. GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO JET LEVEL AS THIS SYSTEM DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE THE 9,000 FT LEVEL
RANGING FROM 70 TO 98% ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, REMNANTS OF THE PACNW LOW
FILLS IN AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A BROAD
BASED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE IT LINGERS FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, SHOWERY, UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DECREASING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA ON THURSDAY. IT'S IMPACT WON'T REALLY BE FELT ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING
THURSDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT
LESS CLEAR AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SPLIT ALMOST EQUALLY BETWEEN A
SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND ANOTHER WHICH DRIVES THE LOW TO NORTHWEST MEXICO
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. THE FORMER SOLUTION POINTS TO A MORE ACTIVE
DAY AND THE LATTER LESS SO. DESPITE DIFFERENCES, CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARED GOOD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE WEEK ABOVE NORMAL, BUT DIP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY, THEN FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING,
BUT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY. OF NOTE, THE GRAND VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH WERE BEGINNING TO BUD OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE
RECENT WARMING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY REQUIRE GROWERS TO TAKE ACTION. IT'S
A BIT TOO EARLY FOR FREEZE WATCH, BUT UNLESS THE FORECAST
MODERATES, EXPECT ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS ARE
INCLUDED FOR ALL BUT KCNY AND KDR0 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KVEL AND KHDN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
RESULT IN CEILINGS FALLING BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KHDN, KRIL,
KEGE AND KASE. CHANCES LESS CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO
PROB30 GROUPS EMPLOYED WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY INDICATED AND A LESSER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WORKS DOWN AND IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
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