773
FXUS65 KGJT 301152
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
552 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN CONTINUING AT TIMES.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- A STRONG, DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PARK RANGE
WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BUDDING VEGETATION
IN SOME LOWER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AS THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. RATES
ARE LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE BEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES ACROSS RABBIT EARS
AND VAIL PASS. SNOW LEVELS ARE SITTING BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000
FEET MSL WITH RAIN OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AGAIN, RATES ARE LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A BIT OF A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE LIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST UPON
THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS UNSETTLED AND
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS RATHER WEAK BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING REMAIN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST HIGH TERRAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FROM THESE SHOWERS ASIDE FROM BRIEF PRECIPITATION
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES. MINIMAL IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN AS ROADS WILL LIKELY
TURN WET THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME WARMING.
A STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY WITH A STRONG 150 KT JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE
NOSE STRETCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES WITH H7 WINDS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE
WYOMING BORDER FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING. THE AREAS MOST
FAVORED FOR THE STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE EAST-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE WINDS LOOK TO GUST
UP TO 50 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE, ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY (IN COORDINATION WITH FGZ AND SLC) FOR THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MONDAY. CONSIDERED SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS AS
WELL AS IT WAS BORDERLINE IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF MONTEZUMA
COUNTY BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF THIS WIND ADVISORY AS MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN.
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, BUMPED UP THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM
AS DECENT WAA WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE.
THESE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALL AHEAD OF THIS STRONG
AND DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO BRING IMPACTFUL
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE PARK RANGE (COZ004) FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
FOOT DURING THIS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STORM. NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY AT NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES AND 70 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT FOR THE PARK RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. OTHER
MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE LESS CERTAIN BUT AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD STORM BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT
A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST AS THE TROUGH IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND. PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY
EVENING, BUT INCREASES IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FORCING FOR THIS EVENT COMES FROM DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM
JET DYNAMICS, PVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH, AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THIS FORCING IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A WIDESPREAD EVENT, ALTHOUGH SNOW TOTALS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY A LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT UNDERWHELMING. IN
RECENT MODEL RUNS PWAT ANOMALIES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TO AROUND
120-160% OF NORMAL. REGARDLESS, THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS, HELPING TO TRANSITION RAIN TO A WINTRY
MIX OR SNOW IN LOCATIONS NOT ALREADY RECEIVING SNOW.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A BROAD
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY, DROPPING PWAT ANOMALIES WELL BELOW 100% OF
NORMAL. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY PRETTY MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. MODEL DIFFERENCES CREATE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE IS PRESENTLY
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FAVORABLE SNOWFALL EVENT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL
ON MONDAY, WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO
WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO TAF SITES SO PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES. ASIDE FROM
BRIEF MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AT TIMES,
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH SCT CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ004.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ022-027-029.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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