621
FXUS65 KGJT 310013
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
- A STRONG, DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PARK RANGE
WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BUDDING VEGETATION
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PRODUCED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRIVER OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS A
SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WAS JUST WEST OF GREEN
RIVER/LAKE POWELL AS OF 21Z ACCORDING TO LATEST ANALYSES.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO FOSTER MOIST CONVECTION.
THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE FILLING IN OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE UNFAVORABLE FORCING,
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
BE TRENDING DOWNWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, INCLUDING THIS
AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND
MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
FLOW ALOFT BACKS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. CONCURRENTLY, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES BOTH
DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT AS THE NOSE OF A 150 KT JET MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOSES OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH.
WEAK OVERRUNNING COMBINED WITH THIS DYNAMIC FORCING WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, THE JET
STRENGTHENS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND WILL BEGIN MIXING TO THE
SURFACE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS,
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS, AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHWEST MONTEZUMA
COUNTY AND THE PARADOX VALLEY OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
AS THE NORTHWEST LOW CONTINUES INLAND IT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH
AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO
MODELS, THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 30E OF ROCK SPRINGS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TO GREEN RIVER. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE
SURFACE TO JET LEVEL WILL CAUSE SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE,
FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EVENING BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THOSE DETAILS
INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE GUSTY PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON MONDAY,
SO EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB BY 10 DEGREES OR MORE OVER TODAY'S
READINGS OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT'S LOWS
SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, AND EVEN MILDER MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT SO FOR NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING LEAVING COOLER CONDITIONS
IN ITS WAKE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH WIND SPEEDS A
SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FORCING LESSENS,
BUT BOTH WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING TO
SLIPPERY TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, 6-12" OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
(>70% CHANCE) FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WITH 4-8" OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE VALLEYS WILL SEE A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST COLORADO.
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY LOOKS VERY LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 160
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE IS
A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND TUESDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS
AND TROUGHY PATTERN ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
DETAILS REMAIN RATHER BLURRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE
WHAT IMPACTS IT MAY BRING TO THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS THE LAST SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. CAN
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR TO IFR AT KASE, KTEX AND KHDN AS SHOWERS PASS.
THE STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO DROP OFF
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT
MORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTING 30-40KTS AFTER 20Z AT MOST
TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ020-021.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ022-027-029.
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB
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