432
FXUS65 KGJT 312142
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN IMPACTFUL SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, A VALLEY RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
FREEZE WARNINGS TUESDAY NIGHT IN AGRICULTURALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
VALLEYS.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE VALLEYS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
ARE PICKING UP NOW WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSING IN OVERHEAD
AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE JET THIS EVENING.
TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. DRIVE WITH CAUTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES!
SPRING STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW, A VALLEY RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AS MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF MU CAPE DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH 7 PM.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE 31.12 HREF SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF MORE
ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS CABLE OF PRODUCING 1"/HR BEGIN AROUND 9 PM,
COINCIDENT WITH THE START OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
MOST OF THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAIN RANGES. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED PRECEDING AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. WHILE WINDS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT, A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT WILL USHER IN RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP REDUCE SNOWFALL
RATES BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER, MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN. IN TOTAL, 6-12" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS OF
4-8" ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SAN JUANS.
MORE GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON:
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
OUR FORECAST ZONES ALONG THE UTAH/ARIZONA AND COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO BORDERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING COMBINES
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER JET ALOFT THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY. VALLEY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
TRAVEL ALONG THE HWY 160 CORRIDOR MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT:
TO CAP OFF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM, SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD-AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY AREA WIDE, THE GRAND VALLEY, UTAH
GRAND FLAT, AND FOUR CORNERS AREA HAVE BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS THERE HAVE
BEEN MORE THAN 50 GROWING DEGREE DAYS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MAKE
PREPARATIONS TOMORROW TO PROTECT ANY SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN CA/NV. FROM THERE,
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH BEFORE
A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCORDING TO LATEST
GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME IN NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA (~4-8")
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SYSTEM KICKS FARTHER OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS, THE SOUTHWARD FLOWING JET OVER THE WEST COAST
REINFORCES THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SPLIT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW, THE TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST BEFORE ITS AXIS MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST LATE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE COL BETWEEN BRANCHES WILL FUEL OFF AND ON
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE,
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD DON'T APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT APPRECIABLE, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JUANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS REGION
LANGUISHES UNDER A TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH A SLOW
TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
PREFRONTAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KHDN. AS THE STORM MOVES IN,
SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KMTJ, KDRO AND KCNY FROM
00Z-06Z/TUES. AFTER MIDNIGHT, SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST
SITES WITH RAIN SHIFTING TO A MIX, OR ALL SNOW. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS. LLWS
WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION FIELDS WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 45 TO 50 KTS AT 2,000 FT AGL. SURFACE WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW,
BUT REMAIN QUITE BRISK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006>008-011-
020-021.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ018-019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ021>023.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027-029.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL/TGJT
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