671
FXUS65 KGJT 011149
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
549 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SPRING STORM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
FREEZE WARNINGS TONIGHT IN OUR DESERT VALLEYS.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA IS
PAINTING MARKED DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES HERE THIS MORNING.
MEEKER AND RANGELY ARE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN GRAND JUNCTION,
WHERE WE WAIT FOR THE INEVITABLE. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
DETECTED ON A FEW CAMERAS AROUND THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT THUS FAR, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS FRONTAL FORCING DRIVES UP
RATES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE QUITE BREEZY
AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO, ALONG
WITH THE LOWER GUNNISON VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, THANKS TO
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE, AHEAD OF THE NEXT WIND ADVISORY
THAT WILL LAUNCH AT 1000 MDT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THANKS TO
THAT POTENT JET STREAK HANGING ALOFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A HOST OF OTHER WINTER PRODUCTS REMAIN VALID TOO, AS WE DEAL WITH
THIS SPRING STORM TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN FALL OFF FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THIS STORM CLEARS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THIS STORM WILL
DELIVER A SERIES OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BANDS TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY
MID DAY, WITH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS SQUASHING HEATING HOPES.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL HANG ALONG THE WESTERN
DIVIDE, MOSTLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OUR DESERT VALLEYS REMAIN UNDER FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THEY WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND MORNING LOWS
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPAWN SOME WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ON THE TERRAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN
THE POOL OF REMNANT MOISTURE THAT WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MIRROR MORNING LOWS, 10-15
DEGREES UNDER CLIMATOLOGY. COLD, CONSIDERING THE WARM CONDITIONS
WE'VE ALREADY HAD THIS SPRING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OVER
EAST- CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH BEFORE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. ACCORDING TO LATEST GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME IN
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA (~4-8") ACROSS THE SAN JUANS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SYSTEM KICKS FARTHER OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS, THE SOUTHWARD FLOWING JET OVER THE WEST COAST
REINFORCES THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SPLIT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW, THE TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST BEFORE ITS AXIS MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST LATE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE COL BETWEEN BRANCHES WILL FUEL OFF AND ON
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE,
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD DON'T APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT APPRECIABLE, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JUANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS REGION
LANGUISHES UNDER A TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH A SLOW
TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BRING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE INTO THE PICTURE
MONDAY AND SEND TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN TO
TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO LLWS AT A FEW SITES. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS TODAY WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS AT
THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BRINGING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS.CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018-
019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021>023.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
UTZ022-027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR UTZ022.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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