800
FXUS65 KGJT 012153
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES,
WHERE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED PEAKS AND RIDGES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE VEGETATION HAS BECOME
SUSCEPTIBLE.
- ON-AND-OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE MAIN THRUST OF THE STORM DROVE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM TO JUST NORTHWEST OF PAGOSA SPRINGS AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FROM LATE LAST
NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THE SAN JUANS ACCORDING TO SNOWCAMS AND SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS. IN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT, A SECONDARY TROUGH WAS
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS
REGENERATING AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING.
MODELS INDICATED THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE FILLING IN BEHIND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE TROUGH WORKING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
SNOW GOING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVERNIGHT. THE SAN JUANS, ON THE
OTHER HAND, CAN EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH A BIT EARLIER, SO
WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE EXPIRE THIS EVENING
WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ABATE DURING THE EVENING SO NO NEED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. LATER TONIGHT, AS THE COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET AND POSE A
THREAT TO SPROUTING VEGETATION. AS SUCH, FREEZE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY, EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE COLDER AIR WHICH ARRIVED TODAY WILL LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A JET DIVING SOUTH ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP THAT FEATURE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED SOME JET DIVERGENCE
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO REGENERATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKLY
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE WEST, NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY AND AMOUNTS MAY WARRANT ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF HIGHLIGHTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, AND WILL REASSESS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, MOS
GUIDANCE RAN A BIT COLDER THAN NBM AND CONTINUED TO POSE A
THREAT TO NEW GROWTH IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THEREFORE, HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED, AND A COLDER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM TRACK SETTLED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST
WAVE IN THIS TRAIN SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER 5-10 INCHES TO THE SAN JUANS, AND 3-6 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. AS THIS IS ONGOING, ANOTHER
WAVE OF ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, EVENTUALLY
FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER, LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN RETURN, THE
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW DAILY AS THE LOW AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL,
WITH HIGHS 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY, REACHING NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL ONCE MORE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG, GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MOST TERMINALS HAVE SWITCHED
OVER TO WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THIS HOUR, WITH GUSTS
30-35 KNOTS. ONLY KCEZ AND KDRO CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT, BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 06Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ006.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018-
019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
UTZ022-027.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR UTZ022-027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022.
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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