568
FXUS65 KGJT 222319
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW WITH VIRGA AND
GUSTY WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED/LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ROSE TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHICH IN TURN LED TO MODESTLY BREEZY
WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
SHOWERS ALSO END EARLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. MODEST MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FAVORED. THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL BRING MORE
WIND THAN RAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL BRING SIMILAR WIND ACTIVITY TO
TODAY'S, THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FILLS IN
AS IT APPROACHES SO DYNAMIC FORCING INSUFFICIENT TO MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MILD AS FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY, WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE MAY SNEAK IN ALONG OUR
NORTHERN BORDER WITH WYOMING AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. WHEN COMBINED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
THE NORTH MOST FAVORED. ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS GOES ON, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL TIGHTEN DAY
BY DAY, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SUNDAY, JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN
VERY LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THESE TWO THINGS
COMBINED MEANS THAT, FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE WESTERN SLOPE IS
LOOKING AT A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM, RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS, WITH THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY, AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AS CLOUDS BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY OVER WHERE EXACTLY
THE CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED, WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE IT TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHILE OTHERS LIFT IT TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL
SEE. WHAT DOES SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE
LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
ANY GUSTS OVER 25 MPH SHOULD ABATE BY SUNSET AND NOT RETURN
UNTIL AFTER 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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