609
FXUS65 KGJT 231128
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
528 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY UP
NORTH, TODAY. CHANCES INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING,
AGAIN, MAINLY UP NORTH.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM
SURFACE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
TRACK WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. LOOKING AT PWATS AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES,
THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. THE BEST LIFT WILL ALSO BE
LOCATED IN THOSE SAME REGIONS. THAT BEING SAID, ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, ALBEIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THINGS,
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN
UINTAS, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (~40% CHANCE) WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR
THE FLAT TOPS, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN JUANS. EXPECT LIGHT,
GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH A WHOPPING 0.01 TO
0.02 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MAKE AN APPEARANCE AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH..MAYBE A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES.
BY THURSDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. SOME WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, SOME MINOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE
NBM IS FAVORING NE UTAH AND THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS
OF CO WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION, LESSER CHANCES
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE SAN JUANS. SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS/CELLS.
REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE SOME CU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE MORE SEASONAL VALUES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS GOES ON, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL TIGHTEN DAY BY DAY,
LEADING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN VERY
LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED MEANS THAT, FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE
WESTERN SLOPE IS LOOKING AT A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE NOT CHANGED IN THIS REGARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM, RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
DESERT VALLEYS, WITH THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY, AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AS CLOUDS BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
MODELS ARE GETTING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO EXIST.
STILL, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL
BRING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION THE
WESTERN SLOPE WILL SEE. LATEST RUNS ARE INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE
'SOME' PRECIP BUT THIS FAR OUT, THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. WHAT
DOES SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE LAST WEEK OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CU POPPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page