957
FXUS65 KGJT 240526
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1126 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE ZONES 203, 205, 207, AND 292.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A COOLER, AND WETTER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND'S
DISTURBANCE AND BRING BACK HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ASHORE IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS PUSHING
SOME POCKETS OF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BEYOND. THIS IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ON AREA TERRAIN FEATURES. NON-ZERO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ON TERRAIN FOR A
FEW OF THESE CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT WILL PRODUCE A DROP OR TWO OF
RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TONIGHT, A DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SEND ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH
THE CWA. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL INCREASE POP ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, AS WELL
AS RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES UPWARD
TOMORROW, DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO CREEP INTO THE LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF
SUBSIDENCE WORKS THROUGH IN FRONT OF THE MAIN EVENT APPROACHING
OUR DOORSTEP FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND A CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM ROUGHLY
250 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST-SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THEN NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z/MONDAY. AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO PACK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. ELEVATED TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER
AIR AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO YIELD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE FINE FUELS HAVE
NOT YET BEGUN TO GREEN UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z/SATURDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES
THIS WEEKEND SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ARRIVES OVER EASTERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWEEPING
EASTWARD ACROSS FOR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ON MONDAY
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND MOISTURE WRAPS IN BEHIND. SHOWERS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OF COLORADO WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENTRAINED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DIP SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. SCATTERED CU
WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE ANY BREAKPOINTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.
VFR CONTINUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. AREA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NECESSARY WHERE FUELS HAVE CURED. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-205-207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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