359
FXUS65 KGJT 240842
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
242 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO THAT END, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR CO FIRE ZONES 203, 205, 207, AND 292 HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THE SAME ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND'S
DISTURBANCE AND BRING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER WYOMING, WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF THE SAME TO
ALLOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES (50 TO 60%) REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UINTAS AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WY/CO
BORDER. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO REMAIN LOW SO WE MIGHT SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THOUGH IT'LL PROBABLY BE MORE VIRGA AND WITH THAT,
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, WE'LL SEE
TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A FEW, VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER OVERNIGHT
BUT THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, IF THEY OCCUR AT
ALL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. AS IT GETS CLOSER, A JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS LOW AND START MOVING OVER THE CWA. WHILE THIS
OCCURS, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN CAUSING
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SOLUTION. DAYTIME HEATING AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THOUGH BETTER CHANCES EXIST FOR THE
FRONT RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THE WIND, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
THE RULE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THOSE
SEEN TODAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO
MOVES INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z/MONDAY.
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO PACK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. ELEVATED TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER
AIR AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ARRIVES OVER EASTERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWEEPING
EASTWARD ACROSS FOR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ON MONDAY
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND MOISTURE WRAPS IN BEHIND. SHOWERS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OF COLORADO WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENTRAINED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DIP
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. SCATTERED CU
WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE ANY BREAKPOINTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.
VFR CONTINUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
25 TO 35 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER AT TIMES, AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL FOR CO
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207, 292 AND 203 AND 205 BELOW 7000 FEET SO
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR FRIDAY FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM FOR THOSE ZONES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME ZONES AND TIMES. MIGHT NEED A WATCH
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PERSIST.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-205-207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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