046
FXUS65 KGJT 251121
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
521 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE STRONG WINDS TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, HIGHER AT
TIMES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO TODAY AND
TOMORROW. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.
- A COOLER, SHOWERY PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND'S
DISTURBANCE BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
BROAD SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TODAY. CURRENTLY, THIS LOW IS
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A WEAK JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD.
DEEPER MIXING AND THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, MAYBE HIGHER AT TIMES, TO MUCH OF THE
CWA. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS, SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL AT BEST. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY, RINSE AND REPEAT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE MADE
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. DEEP MIXING WILL TAP INTO SOME STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SO THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SEEN TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE GREAT BASIN, SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. AS A
RESULT, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IN FACT, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MOST VALLEYS SHOULD
EXPECT 30-35 MPH GUSTS, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS (PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SAN JUANS) ARE ON TAP FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS. WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, SUNDAY IS ON
TRACK TO BE A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS WELL.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN UTAH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF AND A MILD SURGE OF MOISTURE BRINGS US
RELIEF FROM FIRE CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE STEADILY RISING
THROUGHOUT THE MID-WEEK AMIDST DEFORMATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST, THIS
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT FROM THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A BOUT OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DURING THE COOLER MONDAY CONDITIONS, SNOW IS
LIKELY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH VALLEY RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THINGS
WARM UP INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. WHEREVER SNOW DOES PRESENT ITSELF, SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOW AND ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN.
WINDS SHOULDN'T BE AS IMPACTFUL DURING THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD, BUT
SOME 20+ MPH GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO BE SEEN DURING AFTERNOONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS, SO
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY IF THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
LATER INTO THE WEEK OR NOT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES TO THE REGION. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AT TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH AND
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES FOR SOME LOCALES. MEANWHILE,
HUMIDITY DROPS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. SINCE GREEN UP HAS YET TO OCCUR FOR COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 207, 292 AND 203 AND 205 BELOW 7000 FEET, FUELS
HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL IN THOSE AREAS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM FOR
THE PREVIOUSLY LISTED ZONES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE THERE'S A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ203-205-207-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-205-207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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