658
FXUS65 KGJT 260912
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
312 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT TIMES, WILL
BE COMMON TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- A MORE SEASONABLE, SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY
PUTTING AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST IR IMAGERY. WITH THAT IN
MIND, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL COME ASHORE AROUND NOON THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE REACHED JUST NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH THE LOW
GETTING CLOSER, THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT TIMES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL RUNNING WARM. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE SO RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THOSE AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH. MIGHT SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN IN PLACE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, ANY FIRE STARTS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND PLEASE HEED
LOCAL BURN BANS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
RELIEF FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS QUICKLY SETTLES IN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER RH (NEAR 15%)
MAY CONTINUE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ASIDE FROM THIS,
INCREASED MOISTURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN, AND WINDS (ALBEIT STILL UPWARDS OF 25 MPH GUSTS OVER SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS) WILL BE RELATIVELY CALMER. TO ADD TO
THIS, A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS UTAH LATE ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BOLSTERS OUR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL PRESENT AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE. FURTHER INTO THE MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA AMIDST AN ENSUING
WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD ASSIST IN PROLONGING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. THE TIMING ON WHEN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE DOWN REMAINS UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
LACK AGREEMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN, GUSTS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND PEAK
IN THE AFTERNOON, REACHING 25-35 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY HAS ALSO BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS WILL COMBINE
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE THESE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SINCE GREEN UP HAS YET TO OCCUR FOR
COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207, 292 AND 203 AND 205 BELOW 7000
FEET, FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL IN THOSE AREAS. THUS, THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.
IF FIRE STARTS OCCUR, FIRES WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND HEED LOCAL
BURN BANS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ203-205-207-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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