696
FXUS65 KGJT 261130
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT TIMES, WILL
BE COMMON TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
- A MORE SEASONABLE, SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY
PUTTING AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST IR IMAGERY. WITH THAT IN
MIND, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL COME ASHORE AROUND NOON THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE REACHED JUST NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH THE LOW
GETTING CLOSER, THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT TIMES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL RUNNING WARM. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE SO RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THOSE AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS.
SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH. MIGHT SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN IN PLACE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, ANY FIRE STARTS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND PLEASE HEED
LOCAL BURN BANS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
RELIEF FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS QUICKLY SETTLES IN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER RH (NEAR 15%)
MAY CONTINUE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ASIDE FROM THIS,
INCREASED MOISTURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN, AND WINDS (ALBEIT STILL UPWARDS OF 25 MPH GUSTS OVER SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS) WILL BE RELATIVELY CALMER. TO ADD TO
THIS, A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS UTAH LATE ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BOLSTERS OUR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL PRESENT AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE. FURTHER INTO THE MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA AMIDST AN ENSUING
WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD ASSIST IN PROLONGING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. THE TIMING ON WHEN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE DOWN REMAINS UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
LACK AGREEMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT THIS HOUR AND WILL GAVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES,
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE
THESE GUSTY WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ203-205-207-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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