546  
FXUS65 KGJT 271133  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
533 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE  
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL  
FUELS, AND LOW HUMIDITIES SET UP. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.  
 
- SEVERAL WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED OCCASIONAL  
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE WEEK. SHOWERY, UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025  
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR GUSTY WINDS OVER  
THE LAST FEW DAYS IS JUST NOW ENTERING WESTERN UTAH. AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES, IT WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ONCE  
AGAIN, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AND WITH STRONG  
WINDS ALOFT, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WIND  
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO THESE STRONGER WINDS WITH  
EXPECTED GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 45 TO 50 MPH. DID ADD ZONE  
1 (RANGELY, DINOSAUR, CO) TO THE WIND ADVISORIES AS LATEST  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHER VALUES THERE. LOOKING AT H7 WINDS DOWN  
SOUTH, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THE LOW DRIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS  
ALOFT, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT SOME  
STRONGER MIXING SO FOR THOSE REASONS, OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN  
VALLEYS OUT OF ADVISORIES. EVEN SO, GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE  
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE, ONE  
LAST DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SO THE RED FLAG  
WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK  
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FIRE  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH  
20% CHANCES, CONFIDENCE ISN'T ESPECIALLY HIGH.  
 
MOVING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL NOW BE OVER  
NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND THEN START DROPPING TO  
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT OPENS UP, BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT.  
MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY, INDICATED BY SOME MODEST CAPE, WILL ALLOW  
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, HEADING INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO DROP NOTICEABLY  
ON MONDAY, DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE USUAL LATE APRIL  
VALUES. ALSO, THOSE GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE PLAGUED US FOR THE  
LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY END.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2025  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY GAINS COMPLEXITY ON TUESDAY,  
MAINLY DUE TO DEFORMATION IN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES, WHICH IS  
RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLES REGARDING  
THE ENSUING BEHAVIOR OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.  
WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PACNW  
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITING EASTWARDS. THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LAG BEHIND (EVIDENT BY A  
STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN). HOW  
SLOW-MOVING THIS FRONT WILL BE IS WHAT REMAINS AS THE BIG  
QUESTION MARK AS FROPA VARIES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ANYTIME  
FROM MID-DAY WEDNESDAY TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,  
WHILE THE FRONT WILL CARRY WITH IT RELATIVELY INTENSE MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS, PWAT'S ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH  
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES TO OUR CWA. THUS, IT IS  
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT, REGARDLESS OF WHEN FROPA  
OCCURS, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COULD BE MINIMAL. ULTIMATELY  
THOUGH, MODELS ARE WAY TOO VOLATILE RIGHT NOW TO SPECULATE WHAT  
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR  
UPDATES AS WE AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025  
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS. BROKEN SKIES WILL START TO LOWER THROUGH THE  
DAY THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MAIN  
CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES  
TODAY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT TIMES, WILL  
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME LLWS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2025  
 
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS  
OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN SO ONCE  
AGAIN, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN PLACE. RED FLAG  
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM TODAY. COOLER  
AND WETTER WEATHER MOVES IN ON MONDAY, ENDING CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
COZ001-002-011.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
COZ203-205-207-292.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING  
FOR COZ020.  
 
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
UTZ024.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...TGR  
LONG TERM...TGJT  
AVIATION...TGJT  
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT  
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