675
FXUS65 KGJT 271722
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL
FUELS, AND LOW HUMIDITIES SET UP. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
- SEVERAL WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE WEEK. SHOWERY, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS IS JUST NOW ENTERING WESTERN UTAH. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, IT WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AND WITH STRONG
WINDS ALOFT, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO THESE STRONGER WINDS WITH
EXPECTED GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 45 TO 50 MPH. DID ADD ZONE
1 (RANGELY, DINOSAUR, CO) TO THE WIND ADVISORIES AS LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHER VALUES THERE. LOOKING AT H7 WINDS DOWN
SOUTH, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT SOME
STRONGER MIXING SO FOR THOSE REASONS, OPTED TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS OUT OF ADVISORIES. EVEN SO, GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE, ONE
LAST DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SO THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FIRE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
20% CHANCES, CONFIDENCE ISN'T ESPECIALLY HIGH.
MOVING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL NOW BE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND THEN START DROPPING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT OPENS UP, BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT.
MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY, INDICATED BY SOME MODEST CAPE, WILL ALLOW
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE, HEADING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO DROP NOTICEABLY
ON MONDAY, DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE USUAL LATE APRIL
VALUES. ALSO, THOSE GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE PLAGUED US FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY END.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY GAINS COMPLEXITY ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO DEFORMATION IN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES, WHICH IS
RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLES REGARDING
THE ENSUING BEHAVIOR OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PACNW
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITING EASTWARDS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LAG BEHIND (EVIDENT BY A
STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN). HOW
SLOW-MOVING THIS FRONT WILL BE IS WHAT REMAINS AS THE BIG
QUESTION MARK AS FROPA VARIES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ANYTIME
FROM MID-DAY WEDNESDAY TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
WHILE THE FRONT WILL CARRY WITH IT RELATIVELY INTENSE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS, PWAT'S ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES TO OUR CWA. THUS, IT IS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT, REGARDLESS OF WHEN FROPA
OCCURS, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COULD BE MINIMAL. ULTIMATELY
THOUGH, MODELS ARE WAY TOO VOLATILE RIGHT NOW TO SPECULATE WHAT
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
UPDATES AS WE AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
TODAY, GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST THEY HAVE BEEN DURING
THIS WINDY STRETCH WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 25-30
MPH GUSTS. KEGE, KRIL, KGJT, KTEX, AND KDRO MAY EXCEED THESE
SPEEDS (UP TO 35-40 MPH GUSTS) FOR BRIEF PORTIONS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN SOME AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR KHDN. SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT KASE AND KEGE AS
WELL, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THESE TERMINALS' TAFS YET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2025
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN SO ONCE
AGAIN, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN PLACE. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM TODAY. COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER MOVES IN ON MONDAY, ENDING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-011.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ020.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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