849
FXUS65 KGJT 280223
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
823 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN ONGOING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE.
RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING.
- WIND ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
- SHOWERY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND KICKS IN
MIDWEEK, RETURNING US TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DIMINISHING, AND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS CLIMBING. HENCE, ALLOWED THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER, THE EXPECTED STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.
THESE WINDS, DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH EXPECTED IN AREAS FAVORED
BY DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT UNDER THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME. WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, INCLUDING THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN, NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS, PARADOX VALLEY, AND CENTRAL
GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE BASIN, THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
DRY SURFACE AIR HAS RESULTED IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE REGION, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS THROUGH 8PM
AS WELL.
AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND WOBBLES ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES, LATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVES
OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN SOME MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER END, FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH UP HIGH. THIS EQUATES
TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10K FEET, WITH AN INCH OR LESS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME THUNDER COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH AND THE WAVE IS
OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL DROP SUBSTANTIALLY. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND20 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AROUND 30 UP
HIGH. QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN, CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THANKS TO THE EFFECTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, WILL RUN NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS MEANS MID-60S FOR THE DESERT VALLEYS, AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN BEING RESTORED AMONG ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACNW EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO, THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A MILD FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS DETAILED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE FRONT'S MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA, BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN REASONABLY WET AS IT ARRIVES
AROUND MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENCY IN THIS PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT, BUT PWAT'S ARE ON TRACK
TO BE NEAR 140-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VALLEYS AND BASINS, AND WET SNOW TO
A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MODERATE MOISTURE LINGERS ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS AS FLOW OVERHEAD SPLITS WITH THE
TROUGH'S DEPARTURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THE LATTER MERGES WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY, AND THE
ENSUING SHORTWAVE BEGINS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MILD, YET WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY
BEGINS TO OCCUPY THE REGION IN ADDITION TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS
MEANS THAT, AS OF NOW, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. BEYOND FRIDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST
CONSIDERING ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD
BOLSTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, HENCE PROLONGING THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. DETAILS ARE FUZZIER OUT THIS FAR, BUT MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE, SO
IT'S REASONABLE TO BEGIN PREPARING FOR THE WEEKEND TO BE RATHER WET
AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT WINDS
SHOULD CALM THIS EVENING. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AT SOME TAF SITES, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25
MPH. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LOWER
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY DROPPING KASE, KEGE, AND KRIL
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KASE AND KEGE BEGINNING AROUND 06Z, AND AT KHDN
AROUND 12Z. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KRIL, KTEX, AND KGUC AS
WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THESE SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM DUE TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AND RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TONIGHT, BRINGING AND END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, AND IN SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
THE MOUNTAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...DB
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...DB/GF
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