173
FXUS65 KGJT 281129
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT AND THE WESTERN SLOPE.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AS WELL.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND KICKS IN MIDWEEK, RETURNING US TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. PIECES OF ENERGY
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED.
IN FACT, THE NBM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY NOON, FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL
WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING SOME SNOW FALLING AROUND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
SKI RESORT SO THE CHANCE CERTAINLY EXISTS. THAT BEING SAID,
MOST PRECIP FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ENDED BY NOON WHILE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. DESPITE THE WAVE
EXITING THE AREA, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL STILL ALLOW SOME
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON SO A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT AND THE
WESTERN SLOPE. BY THE EVENING HOURS, THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, BECOME CUTOFF, AND
STAY IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKE
TODAY, ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, BELOW NORMAL, WHILE TOMORROW,
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL TAP INTO WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING HIGHS UP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
QUITE COOL WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES A SAFE BET FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. SOME CONCERNS REMAIN FOR THE DELTA/MONTROSE
AREAS BUT AS OF NOW, IF TEMPS DO REACH FREEZING IT WILL BE JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH, IF
ANY, IMPACTS. OF COURSE, WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS LATER
RUNS COME IN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2025
CONFIDENCE IS ONCE AGAIN BEING RESTORED AMONG ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHICH COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACNW EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO, THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A MILD FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS DETAILED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE FRONT'S MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IT APPROACHES THE CWA, BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN REASONABLY WET AS IT ARRIVES
AROUND MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENCY IN THIS PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT, BUT PWAT'S ARE ON TRACK
TO BE NEAR 140-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VALLEYS AND BASINS, AND WET SNOW TO
A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MODERATE MOISTURE LINGERS ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS AS FLOW OVERHEAD SPLITS WITH THE
TROUGH'S DEPARTURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THE LATTER MERGES WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY, AND THE
ENSUING SHORTWAVE BEGINS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MILD, YET WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY
BEGINS TO OCCUPY THE REGION IN ADDITION TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS
MEANS THAT, AS OF NOW, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. BEYOND FRIDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST
CONSIDERING ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD
BOLSTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, HENCE PROLONGING THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. DETAILS ARE FUZZIER OUT THIS FAR, BUT MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE, SO
IT'S REASONABLE TO BEGIN PREPARING FOR THE WEEKEND TO BE RATHER WET
AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
RAIN, AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MIDLEVEL CEILINGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS OCCASIONALLY BEING MET FOR
KASE, KEGE, KRIL AND KHDN. ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS,
SCATTERED/BROKEN SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AFTER 18Z, DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS
TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TAF SITES
BEING AFFECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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