803
FXUS65 KGJT 290908
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH AFTERNOON.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF UTAH AND
COLORADO AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK. IMPACTS WILL BE LESSENED
DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE LACK OF COLD AIR. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE HIGHER PASSES MAY SEE SOME SLUSH OR BRIEF SNOW
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A LARGER AND COLDER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND COLD BRING SOME BIGGER IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
THERE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPPING FROM S.UTAH INTO
N.ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PV LOBE ROTATING AROUND THIS TIGHT
CIRCULATION JUST ON THE VERY EDGE OF OUR FAR SW CWA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS SHOULD FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY OVER THE TERRAIN
TODAY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE WIDER
DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. CAPE VALUES HERE ARE MODEST AT BEST AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SW COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AS SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. THE 4
CORNERS CIRCULATION WILL OPEN AND TONIGHT AS IT IS KICKED
ACROSS THE S.ROCKIES BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWEEPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE N.ROCKIES. A BRIEF TRANSITORY
RIDGE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BEFORE
PRECIPITATION NOSES ACROSS THE WYOMING BORDER AFTER SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES SUGGEST THE MOISTURE COMING IN
WITH THIS NEXT SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS ABOUT 1 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL
AND INLAND PENETRATING IVT NUMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME BETTER QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WILL ARRIVE WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING DROPPING INTO FAR NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9KFT
BUT DRIVEN LOWER WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN PLAY. LOOKS LIKE
A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGHER PARTS OF THE UINTAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER NORTHERN THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS IN
CHECK AND HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LENDING CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL BE
SHEARED APART WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY
LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE WESTERN SPLIT OF THE TROUGH
WILL FORM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WHICH COMPLETES THE REX BLOCK
PATTERN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH THE HIGH OVER THE PACNW.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY (>40%) OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10,000 FT WITH ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS IF ANY OVER THE HIGHER PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BRINGING BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WHERE ANOTHER DUSTING OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM DESCENDS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AS A STRONG,
DEEP COLD LOW FOR WHICH THE REX BLOCK IS NO MATCH WITH THE HIGH
GETTING PUSHED EAST OVER WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA, AND THE LOW
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE THAT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE, MAYBE ONE TO THREE INCHES,
ABOVE 10,000.
THOUGH THE LOW WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ACTUALLY STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH
AS IT TURNS EAST INTO CANADA, THE ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH CUTTING OFF INTO A VERY COLD LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY WITH H500 LEVELS IN THE MID 540S. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING 50 MPH OR MORE WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE
WELCOMED WIDE SPREAD RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE CONCERN WILL BE A POSSIBLE LATE SPRING FREEZE IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. IT'S WAY TO SOON TO TELL
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER HOW THE AIRMASS WITH THIS LOW WILL MODIFY AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT THAT THERE IS SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS EVEN THIS FAR OUT SAYS THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND ONLY PLACED IN THE VICINITY
OF SOME TAF SITES ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15/DB
AVIATION...GJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page