272
FXUS65 KGJT 272326
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
526 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LESSER COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY (OUTSIDE OF T-STORM OUTFLOWS)
WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS.
- PATTERN EXPECTED TO TURN WETTER BY MONDAY, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND A NOTABLE COOLDOWN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A DISTINCT YET QUITE DISORGANIZED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, PROVIDING FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR VALLEY ZONES. ALOFT, JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW
MOISTURE IS LINGERING AT MID-LEVELS FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO
KICK OFF SOME WEAK AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE, WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE POSSIBLE.
SYNOPTICALLY THERE'S LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL SUSTAIN A MODEST FEED OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE AND STABILITY
PROFILES WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOWS
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MOSTLY STEADY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
PATTERN CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBTLE TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION DESPITE IT BEING COMPRESSED BY
COMPETING TROUGHS TO ITS EAST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD BE
SLIGHT WARMING IF THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS LOOK
TO BREAK 90F ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE VALLEYS SAVE FOR THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND US-160 CORRIDOR. STILL, WE WON'T ENTIRELY
ERODE DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EITHER DAY, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
PWAT VALUES PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TRANSPOSING THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD INTO COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AS A RESULT, AND WE
COULD EVEN SCRAPE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND UTAH GRAND FLAT. UNDER A DRIER
AIRMASS, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A 20-30% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR OUR EASTERNMOST MOUNTAIN TERRAIN GIVEN LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
BY SUNDAY, WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
REPLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH, AS WELL AS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE'S REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLVING TOWARDS
A WETTER PATTERN FOR MONDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A
ROBUST COOLDOWN IN STORE. STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCERN
DETAILS AS FAR AS FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER
OFF, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS AGAIN SEEING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY (30-50%) OF BEING IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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