726
FXUS65 KGJT 282323
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
523 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH DECREASING DAY-TO-DAY COVERAGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ~10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
- PATTERN EXPECTED TO TURN WETTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FAVORED. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
PLENTY OF SIMMERING CUMULUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL BE LOOKING MUCH THE SAME IN THIS REGARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT LET'S PULL IT BACK INTO THE SHORT TERM
BEFORE I GET TOO SIDETRACKED...
AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NARROWS, IT WILL ALSO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY, WARMING TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
1-3 DEGREES. IT CERTAINLY WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE THERMAL
RIDGE. THUS, WITH AN ADDED 100-200 J/KG OF MLCAPE VERSUS TODAY,
WE'LL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION RETURN NEAR MIDDAY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AGAIN DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. A FEW COULD BE
STRONGER THAN PRIOR DAYS GIVEN BETTER INSTABILITY, BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. WITH HIGHER BASES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT TOO,
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
WE'LL HAVE A RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO END THE
WEEK. FRIDAY, A SEPARATE AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL EMERGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN, DUE NORTH OF A LARGELY STAGNANT CLOSED LOW. EASTERN
UTAH AND THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WITH LINGERING (ALBEIT DIMINISHING) MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALL THIS SAID, THE EXPANDING RIDGE WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL WARMING, WITH ALL OF THE UTAH VALLEYS AND THE
GRAND VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE 90'S WITHOUT A SWEAT (PUN
INTENDED...IT'S DRY HEAT, AFTER ALL!). ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WON'T BE ENTIRELY GONE, IT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE, AND FAVOR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER.
THOSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SPREADS EASTWARD, ADVECTING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SAN JUANS, ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND (HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR SATURDAY, MODERATE FOR SUNDAY CONTINGENT ON TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM), WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA MAY SCRAPE 100F.
BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD,
PULLING IN MORE ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE PREEMPTIVE COOLING IF
IT APPROACHING QUICKLY ENOUGH, BUT FOR NOW, MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY, WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL RAMP DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY, DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
DESPITE SOME QUESTION MARKS FOR SUNDAY REGARDING THE ONSET OF
THIS SYSTEM, MONDAY STILL CARRIES NOTABLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS PWAT
ANOMALIES RISE TO BETWEEN 200-300% OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY PINPOINT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, BUT WETTING
RAIN SEEMS LIKE AN INCREASINGLY REASONABLE BET FOR A MAJORITY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1-2" OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN COOLER AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TUESDAY
FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING BRIEFLY IMPACTED. PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. STORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRUNO RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...BRUNO RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...MA
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