271
FXUS65 KGJT 300534
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH DECREASING DAY-TO-DAY COVERAGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
~10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
- PATTERN EXPECTED TO TURN WETTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FAVORED. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
THERE IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON OUR SIDE ON THE FRONT. IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE ARE SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIND
RATHER THAN RAINFALL, SO GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERHAPS BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND OR
GRAUPEL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION. THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LEAVE US
SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM
ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND MID DAY. HIGHS COME UP A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. SOUTH OF I-70, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS STRETCH
WITH THE DESERT VALLEYS HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH FORCING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE VERY
LIKELY WITH PWATS AROUND 250% OF NORMAL EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENS. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TROPICAL AND
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM
COULD POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS
MONDAY APPROACHES...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
WELL WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER BEFORE 06Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH
THESE LATTER STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB
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