834
FXUS65 KGJT 301712
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1112 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH DECREASING DAY-TO-DAY COVERAGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
~10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE 1ST.
- PATTERN EXPECTED TO TURN WETTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FAVORED. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO CANADA, AND A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE COAST OF THE BAJA. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA) IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL ACT TO SQUELCH CONVECTION, BUT
CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNINGS PROMOTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CAPES
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DAILY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE OF
THESE SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF MAY, WARMING TO EIGHT TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW AND PEAKING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. HOW WARM
IS THIS? THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS LIKE THE GRAND VALLEY, DELTA AND
MOAB WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 90'S
TOMORROW WITH THE LOWER BASINS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AT ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. SOUTH OF I-70, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS STRETCH
WITH THE DESERT VALLEYS HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH FORCING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE VERY
LIKELY WITH PWATS AROUND 250% OF NORMAL EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENS. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TROPICAL AND
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM
COULD POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS
MONDAY APPROACHES...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
WELL WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. EXPECT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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