904
FXUS65 KGJT 010526
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1126 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW,
BEFORE COOLING GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THE
TERRAIN MOSTLY ALONG THE DIVIDE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
- A SURGE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
MONDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SEVERAL DESERT VALLEYS HITTING THE 90S AND
MOUNTAIN TOWNS REACHING THE 80S. THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOSITURE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE
YESTERDAY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM VIRGA AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS, WHICH DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS ONE SHORTWAVE
MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW,
PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LESS SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A MINOR INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE STAYS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
SIMILAR TO TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM IN FACT WE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A CLOSED LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY MORNING WILL LIFT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA MONDAY. AS DISCUSSED HERE RECENTLY, THIS LOW
IS BRINGING ALONG A GENEROUS SUPPLY OF EXTRATROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS
IN EXCESS OF 250 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. A FEW OUTPUTS SUGGEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THIS REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST WITH
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. GIVEN THE EXCESS OF MOISTURE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA WILL REMAIN
IN WPC'S MARGINAL RISK STATUS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST
THREAT TO FLASH FLOODING WILL LIE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A STEADY
STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT MONDAY MORNING COULD SQUASH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY PRETTY EASILY. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD COME WITH ITS OWN
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, IT WOULD BE BEST TO ASSUME A FEW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCAL DRAINAGES, ARROYOS, SLOT
CANYONS, ETC. A RISK OF FLOODING. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST MOISTURE WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. THINGS WILL DRY
OUT WEST OF THE UT LINE BY THEN TOO THANKS TO A WEAK BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING BACK IN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HANG ON
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
WHILE THIS ONE PACKS LESS MOISTURE, PWATS REMAIN NEARLY 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS. SATURATED SOILS COULD CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL HIGH WATER CONCERNS TUESDAY TOO. MODELS HOLD ONTO BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS SHOULD KEEP
UNSETTLED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ALIVE NEXT WEEK. RECYCLED MOISTURE
WILL GET A LIFT FROM OROGRAPHICS EACH AFTERNOON, KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEEK'S END AND DRIVE TEMPERATURES
BACK UPWARD. TEMPERATURES, NEXT WEEK, WILL TREND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS ABSENT AS WELL, THANKS TO THE SURGING RH VALUES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY BREEZE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AFTER 18Z. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE TERRAIN MOSTLY ALONG COLORADO DIVIDE FROM THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH. INCLUDED PROB30 IN KEGE, KASE, KGUC, KMTJ,
KTEX AND KDRO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
VIRGA AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...DB
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