456
FXUS65 KGJT 020026
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
626 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TOMORROW BRINING WIDESPREAD
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SLOT CANYONS AND
BELOW STEEP TERRAIN.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEK TO COME
FEATURING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LESS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE WEAKENING
RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES
BROUGHT TO US BY THE RIDGE SO RAIN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP DEW POINT SPREAD STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REMNANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE BAJA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE
COMPRISED OF PWATS 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ARRIVES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT
FROM THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR PEAK HEATING AND CONVECTION INITIATION.
THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY THE STRONGER THE CONVECTION FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, SO ANY LOCATIONS SUNNY IN THE LATE MORNING
HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE WE ARE
LOOKING AT MORE AREAS OF STRATIFORM EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF WE SEE A LITTLE BOTH DUE TO
SOME PLACES GETTING AMPLE SUN AND OTHER AREAS STAYING CLOUDY ALL
MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS THAT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS REGARDLESS SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ONE BEING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT THAT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THE FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DURING THE EVENING THE FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AFTER A LULL IN FORCING ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK ARE VERY
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. WE'LL HAVE TO TRACK THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET A BETTER PICTURE OF WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (175-225% OF NORMAL) REMAINING IN PLACE FROM
TOMORROW'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. LOTS OF DETAILS TO SORT
THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST YOU SHOULD REMAIN TUNED IN TO THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR RECREATION PLANS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TODAY'S CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER CEILINGS AND INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY 18Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOWS,
LIGHTNING, PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS, AND MEETING ILS
BREAKPOINTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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