222
FXUS65 KGJT 191644
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL SPREAD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE DESERT
VALLEYS TODAY INTO FRIDAY. FOLKS SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS OUTSIDE.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH, IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY PROBABLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS REPLACED BY
STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD A STRONG WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WITH THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX EXCEEDING
THE 95TH PERCENTILE OVER MANY AREAS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS AND BORDERLINE WIND HEADLINES MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AS THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OF 45 MPH IN
MANY PLACES EXCEEDS 60 PERCENT. THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MERCURY WILL BE IN
THE 103 TO 107 RANGE TODAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WITH MINIMAL HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
A SLOW-MOVING, HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN LATE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY CONFINED MOSTLY TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
PACNW, WHEREAS WE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER ANOMALOUSLY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD SHOULD
TIGHTEN, MEANING WE WILL EXPERIENCE A BOOST IN OUR WINDS
(POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) FOR OUR VALLEYS.
DUE TO THIS SETUP, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. GEFS MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT REGARDING REGION-WIDE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 75TH PERCENTILE ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE UINTA BASIN
ARE LIKELY (>90% CHANCE) OF EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN
THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY INDEX. THIS IS ALL TO SAY THAT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AS WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT LOSES SOME POTENCY IN TERMS OF ITS
SUPPORT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY, WE MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WEEDS JUST YET. NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY, BUT A
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES HAVE YET TO PINPOINT
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SURGING MOISTURE, SO IT IS DIFFICULT AT
THIS MOMENT TO DETERMINE HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR CWA, BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH AT MOST TAF SITES. STRONGER GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET WITH SOME ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS IN A FEW AREAS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z FRIDAY WITH
STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
A STRING OF HOT...DRY AND WINDY DAYS ARE ON TAP TO END OUT THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. THE CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINFALL OR EVEN INCREASED HUMIDITY CAN NOT BE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ485>487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027-029.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15
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