813
FXUS65 KGJT 200500
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL SPREAD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE DESERT
VALLEYS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOLKS SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS OUTSIDE.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING AN END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THEREFORE TODAY'S
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ADDITIONAL RED
FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
MILD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND CLOUDS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE THUS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS, HIGHS WILL STILL BE 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH MANY VALLEY AREAS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, AND WE SHOULD EXPECT THIS HOT PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING ITS WAY ONSHORE FROM THE
WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW, PLACING US UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS' CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PWAT'S FORECASTED AT 20-50% OF
NORMAL. WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND STRONG WINDS UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX IS VERY LIKELY (>90%
CHANCE) TO EXCEED THE 95TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH, MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION, GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUSTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH IN OTHER VALLEYS, WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING AN UPTICK IN WINDS IN THE
LATEST NBM RUN. THUS, WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM 10AM TO
10PM TOMORROW WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON PERIOD. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS ON BOTH THE
FIRE WEATHER AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL BOTH TOMORROW AND DURING THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EDGES CLOSER INLAND,
ALLOWING A STRONGER 100 KT JET STREAK TO ROUND THE BASE AND SET UP
OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHTER
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO NO BREAK FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IN FACT, THE HOT, DRY AND
WINDY INDEX SHOWS GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED THE
95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, WITH A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE AT LEAST THE 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE . CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, SO UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH RECOVERY.
THE JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AND REMAINS ELONGATED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WIND THAN
SATURDAY. SO, WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PIVOT AROUND THE PACNW TROUGH ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS FEATURE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO DRAW NORTHWARD, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NEW MEXICO UP
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO DIVIDE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
BY RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, ONE CONCERN AFTER THIS PROLONGED
HOT, DRY AND WINDY PERIOD...LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS AS IT MAY TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE PROFILE TO SATURATE COMPLETELY WHICH LEAVES US
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING RATHER THAN WETTING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY BUT ARE FORECASTED
TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
WINDS HAVE CALMED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 15Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
A STRING OF HOT...DRY AND WINDY DAYS ARE ON TAP TO END OUT THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER TOMORROW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL OR EVEN
INCREASED HUMIDITY CAN NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020-021.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027-029.
UPDATE...GF
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15
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