333
FXUS65 KGJT 201737
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS
TODAY. FOLKS SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS OUTSIDE.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE H500 20/00Z HAND ANALYSIS MAP WAS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. ACROSS THE LOWER 48
A BROAD RIDGE WAS COVERING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST. THE BLOCKING LOW
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROP HIGH
OVER THE SE CONUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FORCE THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG SW GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES AND WINDY TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW TO THE PACNW COAST TODAY
WILL FORCE LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THIS
BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BRING A PEAK TO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DEEP MIXING IN THIS HOT
AIRMASS WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND BRING DOWN GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. THIS IS BAD NEWS WHEN HUMIDITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PUSH THE TRIPLE DIGITS. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TODAY WITH FINGERS CROSSED FOR NO FIRE STARTS. THE
MAIN THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD
EASE THE HEAT JUST A TAD AND THE RECORD HIGH OF 103 AT GJT
APPEARS SAFE. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPINS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG GRADIENT
IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL KEEP
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AND REMAINS ELONGATED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH WITH LESS
WIND THAN SATURDAY. SO, WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PIVOT AROUND THE
PACNW TROUGH ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THIS FEATURE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO DRAW
NORTHWARD, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NEW MEXICO UP ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COLORADO DIVIDE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BY RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, ONE
CONCERN AFTER THIS PROLONGED HOT, DRY AND WINDY
PERIOD...LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
PROFILE TO SATURATE COMPLETELY WHICH LEAVES US WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING RATHER THAN WETTING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY BUT ARE FORECASTED
TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
GUSTS ARE STRONG TODAY WITH MOST TERMINALS ALREADY SEEING PEAK
GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WINDY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, AND SOME LOCATIONS,
PARTICULARLY KEGE AND KHDN, MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 45
MPH. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM FEW TO
SCATTERED MID- LEVEL CLOUDS OVER HIGH ELEVATION TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON
TAP WITH HIGHS STILL NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. WETTING
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ200-202-203-
205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-
006>008-011-020-021.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ485>487-490-
491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15
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