623
FXUS65 KGJT 210458
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DECREASE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA, TODAY'S RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 9AM TO MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE PACNW TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE
YESTERDAY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER, ALTHOUGH STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-
60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEEP MIXING AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS
CAUSED RH TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY RELATIVELY MILD. NOT MUCH
CHANGES IN THE PATTERN TOMORROW. THE MIDLEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHWEST COMPARED TO TODAY SO SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MIGHT NOT GUST AS STRONG.
REGARDLESS SOME SPOTS ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 MPH
GUSTS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT
CHANGE SO RED FLAG WARNINGS STAY IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME PLACES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH US UNDERNEATH ABNORMALLY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH
THIS PATTERN, WE ARE EXPECTING A MILD UPTICK IN REGION-WIDE HUMIDITY
THANKS TO SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
DECREASE IN WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA) AND A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NEVERTHELESS, WHILE THE POTENCY OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
LESSEN ON SUNDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO BE IN PLACE. AS SUCH, IT IS PARAMOUNT TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FUELS REGION-WIDE ARE CRITICAL.
MONDAY BRINGS A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN THE FIRE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHOULD BACK
WESTWARDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. RH ABOVE THE RED FLAG WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 15% DOES APPEAR TO STAY CONFINED TO ABOVE 8500 FT ON
MONDAY THOUGH, THUS IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT NOTABLE RELIEF FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE DIRECTLY FLOWS INTO OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE NBM CURRENTLY INDICATES >25%
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CORRIDOR (INCLUDING AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND THE
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY) FALLING NEAR 40-70% POP'S. SHOULD
REALITY FAVOR THE GFS ENS SCENARIO, WHICH PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER
WESTWARDS INTO OUR REGION, AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHER POP'S COME TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF ITS
LOCATION, REGIONS NORTH OF THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL STAY HOT AND
DRY, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST. AS THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES, STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRANSITING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL MOVE OVERHEAD, SUPPRESSING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
FURTHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING
AT THIS POINT. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY, COOL, AND BREEZY-AT-BEST
WINDS MAY POSSIBLY GIVE US SOME NICE WEATHER PRIME FOR A RETURN TO
COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR LEISURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20
KNOTS OR LESS OUT THERE. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS ISSUES, PARTICULARLY
FOR SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL PICK AGAIN STARTING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY IN
MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ001-002-
020-021.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-024-
027-029.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...KJS
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