468
FXUS65 KGJT 210843
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR EASTERN
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE
CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OF A GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THREAT THAN WETTING RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE
AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION, A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 100 KTS WILL SET UP ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. H7 WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 30 TO
40 KT RANGE WITH H5 WINDS UPWARDS OF 50 KTS. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM GRAND VALLEY TO EAGLE AS WELL AS THE DELTA AND
MONTROSE ZONE DUE TO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SO NOT AS HOT
AS LAST COUPLE DAYS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT SO RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE. IN FACT
WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS RH REMAINS DRY AND SOME AREAS CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO VERY WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS
ACROSS SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE GRAND JUNCTION, MOAB AND RIFLE
THAT ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AS OF THIS 2 AM
HOUR. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME RECENT WILDFIRE STARTS
FURTHER WEST, THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SMOKE TO
BE TRANSPORTED ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THEREFORE, INTRODUCED AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL. NOT A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTDOORS IF
YOU DON'T HAVE TO SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK WILL TRACK OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY,
SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SO WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO
MEET OR EXCEED 45 MPH ONCE AGAIN IN SOME AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT, SO FELT CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SUNDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. LEFT OUT THE
UINTA MOUNTAIN ZONE (UT485) THOUGH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK
TO COME UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS HERE MORE LOCALIZED.
TEMPERATURES DO COOL OFF SOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
NORTHWEST TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT AND CLOSER TO NORMAL, WHICH
SHOULD FEEL LIKE A BIT OF A RELIEF DESPITE THE WIND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH US UNDERNEATH ABNORMALLY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN, WE ARE EXPECTING A MILD UPTICK IN
REGION-WIDE HUMIDITY THANKS TO SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A DECREASE IN WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA) AND A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER-THAN-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY BRINGS A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN THE FIRE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHOULD BACK
WESTWARDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. RH ABOVE THE RED FLAG WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 15% DOES APPEAR TO STAY CONFINED TO ABOVE 8500 FT ON
MONDAY THOUGH, THUS IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT NOTABLE RELIEF FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE DIRECTLY FLOWS INTO OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE NBM CURRENTLY INDICATES >25%
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CORRIDOR (INCLUDING AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND THE
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY) FALLING NEAR 40-70% POP'S. SHOULD
REALITY FAVOR THE GFS ENS SCENARIO, WHICH PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER
WESTWARDS INTO OUR REGION, AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHER POP'S COME TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF ITS
LOCATION, REGIONS NORTH OF THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL STAY HOT AND
DRY, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST. AS THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES, STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRANSITING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL MOVE OVERHEAD, SUPPRESSING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
FURTHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING
AT THIS POINT. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY, COOL, AND BREEZY-AT-BEST
WINDS MAY POSSIBLY GIVE US SOME NICE WEATHER PRIME FOR A RETURN TO
COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR LEISURE AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. AS
DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN THOUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOW SIGNS OF HEATING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20
KNOTS OR LESS OUT THERE. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS ISSUES, PARTICULARLY
FOR SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL PICK AGAIN STARTING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. WETTING
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL
WHICH IS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. DUE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING MET FOR
SUNDAY, UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS
WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006>008-011-020-021.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR UTZ485>487-490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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