035
FXUS65 KGJT 220453
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR EASTERN
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OF A GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THREAT THAN WETTING RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ADDITIONALLY, TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED, AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM MDT TOMORROW, AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION AS A
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, WHICH ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING, PROMOTING GOOD MIXING WHILE THE MIDLEVEL JET IS
OVERHEAD. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE MIDLEVEL JET IS SITUATED OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, AND AS SUCH, THAT IS WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORECASTED WIND GUSTS ARE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS REGION IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 35-45 MPH,
AND GUSTS OF UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, PEAK
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW THE MIDLEVEL JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD, MEANING THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PEAK GUSTS OF 35-
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY DRY
THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. CONSEQUENTLY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND NORMAL
TODAY, MEANING COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH THE
TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA, TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN
MORE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ON MONDAY REMNANTS OF THE PACNW TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A TIGHT GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE WIND SPEEDS WE SAW
YESTERDAY AND ARE SEEING TODAY. AS OF NOW GUSTS STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE SURFACE RH. THEREFORE WE ARE EXPECTING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AROUND CENTRAL CO, WITH
LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. ON
TUESDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA STAYS DRY AND
RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. ON WEDNESDAY THE
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT
LOWER WIND SPEEDS. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO GO
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT, BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT SOME TERMINALS. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO SEE OFF-AND-ON GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
PREPARE FOR WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TERMINALS
MAY AGAIN SEE UP TO 45 MPH GUSTS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW, WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ205-290-292-293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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