610
FXUS65 KGJT 221700
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT HEAT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
- STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH, WHILE THE REMAINING AREAS
SEE GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A WARMUP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH MORE OF A
GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THREAT THAN WETTING RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST, MAINTAINING A TIGHT
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, A 115 KT JET STREAK WILL
PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY EVENING. H7 WINDS REMAIN
STRONGEST ACROSS THIS NORTHWEST PORTION, WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED 45 MPH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE AND SILT EASTWARD TOWARDS EAGLE AND AVON.
THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS AREA REMAINS ON TRACK AND DECIDED TO
ALSO ADD COZ002 (INCLUDING CRAIG, MEEKER AND HAYDEN) AS THIS
AREA ALSO REMAINS UNDER THE STRONGER WINDS AND GRADIENT DUE TO
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONGER JET. THE REMAINING AREAS APPEAR TO REMAIN UNDER WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NOT AS LIKELY TO HIT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. STILL WINDY, SO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY AND HENCE,
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ON MONDAY, REMNANTS OF THE PACNW TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH A BIT ELONGATED, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT DECREASE AS WE
LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONGER JET, SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, BREEZY ENOUGH FOR
SOME AREAS TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS,
PARTICULARLY THE GUNNISON BASIN AND COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LET THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR MONDAY RIDE ANOTHER DAY TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE DETAILS
WITH NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO ADD COZ203 BELOW 8000 FT
TO THE WATCH THOUGH AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE
LOOK TO SEE BEST POTENTIAL AND BETTER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
"COOL" FRONT PASSAGE WITH HIGHS 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN TODAY, YET REMAIN COOLER
COMPARED TO RECENT HEAT WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONTINUES TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA STAYS DRY AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT LOWER WIND SPEEDS. THE MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO GO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSHISMORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES BEFORE PICKING UP IBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WETTING RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ002-007-008.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ203-205-290-292-293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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