695
FXUS65 KGJT 230843
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS DRY SURFACE LEVELS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH MORE OF A
GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THREAT THAN WETTING RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HEAT RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS
A CUT OFF LOW CARVES OUT ANOTHER TROUGH, LEADING TO DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS APPEAR TO BE
LESS WINDY THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS BUT GUSTING ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO, INCLUDING THE
GRAND VALLEY AND I-70 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE DELTA-MONTROSE AND
PARADOX VALLEY LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THESE AREAS TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT FIVE DEGREES, BUT A LITTLE BIT
MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE MAIN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, THEREBY INCREASING
THE GRADIENT WINDS HERE. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE, FELT CONFIDENT
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING MET TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SAID AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH, THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE
TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COLORADO DIVIDE AND
FRONT RANGE TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE THIS MAY HELP
RAISE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO, LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY
WHERE STORMS HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING RATHER THAN WETTING RAIN (WHICH IS LESS THAN 15
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DIVIDE). THE BETTER CHANCES OF
WETTING RAIN APPEAR TO BE OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS, WHICH ARE
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH,
THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY GIVEN
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST COMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UPSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE PWATS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
MEANING THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT LIKELY (<15% CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH NO NOTABLE MOISTURE TAPS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HENCE, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY FROM 11 AM MDT THROUGH 8 PM MDT FOR THOSE PARTICULAR
AREAS. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH, LEADING TO
ONE MORE DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ADEQUATE COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST UTAH AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT THROUGH 8
PM MDT AS WELL.
FURTHER SOUTH, MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN WETTING RAIN. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME, BEYOND TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-290.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-205-290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ486-487-
490.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...MDA
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