087
FXUS65 KGJT 251131
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
531 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING A BOOST OF SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT ~125% OF NORMAL, PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS. WHILE MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THE PUSH OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
ARE LOW (< 25%), BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS WELCOMED AFTER LAST
WEEK'S DRY SPELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
DOES NOT LOOK TO RETURN TO OUR REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP ON MONDAY
AND BEYOND.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS CAUSING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING TO SINGLE DIGITS, CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITONS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE
TO WEAKER WINDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BUILDING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY. THE DESERT VALLEYS IN EASTERN UTAH WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF HITTING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ON THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, TEMPO BREAKPOINT
CEILINGS, AND SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES DURING RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DECAY THIS
EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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