365
FXUS65 KGJT 271132
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
532 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- AN INFLUX IN MOISTURE LEADS TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ABOVE-NOMRAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE-DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH TOMORROW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
UINTA MOUNTAINS. STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FIRE
STARTS. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN MODELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
THIS WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE MOST PART
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RETURN
OF MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THE FRONT PUSHES MOISTURE IN FROM THE NORTH AND IT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER POCKET OF
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SO THAT MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE. ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ULTIMATELY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
WHETHER THIS WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE OR STALLS OUT, WHICH IS A COMMON
PROBLEM WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THEREFORE THE DETAILS UNCERTAIN, BUT
WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THING TO ALSO WATCH IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AS
THEY CAN SEND WEAK FRONTS INTO THE REGION THAT DISRUPT THE MOISTURE
AND TEMPORARILY DISPLACE IT TO THE SOUTH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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