653  
FXUS65 KGJT 281115  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
515 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
- AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN TOMORROW  
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  
OVERALL, IT WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO VERY LOW AFTERNOON  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SPEAKING OF FIRES, WITH A LARGE WILDFIRE  
ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST UTAH AND WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, AN UPTICK IN  
SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND  
WESTERN COLORADO.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS  
NORTHEAST UTAH LATER TODAY RESULTING IN WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION  
TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. STORMS COULD  
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FIRE STARTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEW  
MEXICO AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY, A FRONT IS  
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NEIGHBORS, AND MAY INTRODUCE  
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, THEY'LL FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF THE CWA BUT EVEN SO, COVERAGE IS VERY ISOLATED. MORE  
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST  
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AS ALL THIS OCCURS, AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AS IT  
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START ADVECTING INTO  
THE REGION. THIS INCREASE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEPEST  
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY AND  
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  
THE NBM IS ON BOARD WITH THESE SOLUTIONS SO THE FORECAST FOLLOWS  
SUIT FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY INCREASING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
BEFORE DECREASING FRIDAY. PLENTY OF CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW  
AND THEN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE, AND COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER  
THE COMING DAYS. HAVING SAID THAT, CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO  
INCREASE FOR THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY  
LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. SOME 20-KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE  
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KAA  
LONG TERM...TGR  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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