623
FXUS65 KGJT 282000
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN TOMORROW
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. ONCE AGAIN, OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME AREAS, AND THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHERE GUSTS EXCEED 25 MPH, WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDING MODERATELY ELEVATED PWAT VALUES
TO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE THERE THIS WEEKEND IS NOT
SUBSTANTIAL, BUT CAMS DO SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THE UINTA MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON POPS ARE
ELEVATED IN THE UINTAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, PWATS SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE, CHANCES
(30 TO 40%) ALSO INCREASE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM,
MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY, JUST ENOUGH TO START ADVECTING SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PWATS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL REACH ANYWHERE FROM 150 TO 170% OF
NORMAL EARLY JULY VALUES. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCES (STILL 30 TO
40%) EXIST OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW OPENS UP AND BECOMES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MINOR PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO BE ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REACH 200% OF NORMAL AND AS THESE 2 FEATURES INTERACT
WITH THE MOISTURE, AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE
THE NBM IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. NOT SURPRISED AS THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN UT AND THE WESTERN SLOPE. PWATS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 200% BUT IT APPEARS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MAY
SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A RATHER
WEAK, TRANSITORY RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE'LL BE BACK TO THE DIVIDE FOR FAVORED
LOCATIONS. AS MENTIONED, SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY ONWARDS THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN IN PLACE LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. SOME ISOLATED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS 20-KNOT GUSTS. WINDS CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN BY SUNSET.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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