624
FXUS65 KGJT 290342
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN TOMORROW
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. ONCE AGAIN, OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME AREAS, AND THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHERE GUSTS EXCEED 25 MPH, WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDING MODERATELY ELEVATED PWAT VALUES
TO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE THERE THIS WEEKEND IS NOT
SUBSTANTIAL, BUT CAMS DO SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THE UINTA MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON POPS ARE
ELEVATED IN THE UINTAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN IN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, PWATS SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE, CHANCES
(30 TO 40%) ALSO INCREASE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM,
MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY, JUST ENOUGH TO START ADVECTING SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PWATS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL REACH ANYWHERE FROM 150 TO 170% OF
NORMAL EARLY JULY VALUES. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCES (STILL 30 TO
40%) EXIST OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW OPENS UP AND BECOMES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MINOR PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO BE ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REACH 200% OF NORMAL AND AS THESE 2 FEATURES INTERACT
WITH THE MOISTURE, AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE
THE NBM IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. NOT SURPRISED AS THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN UT AND THE WESTERN SLOPE. PWATS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 200% BUT IT APPEARS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MAY
SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A RATHER
WEAK, TRANSITORY RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE'LL BE BACK TO THE DIVIDE FOR FAVORED
LOCATIONS. AS MENTIONED, SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY ONWARDS THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER ON THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BACK TO LIGHT AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD THANKS TO THE AMPLE
DRY AIR AND ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL RUN WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CLOUDS WILL SPROUT ON THE
TERRAIN. A NON ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL CONTINUE ON THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF TERRAIN AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE,
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AIRFIELDS IN
ADJACENT VALLEYS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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