850
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE
AREA, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN MIDWEEK BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE
FOR MOST. PWATS UP TO 125-150% OF NORMAL ADVECT INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND FIRE STARTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
ENERGY OVERHEAD. SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING BY SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN FEATURES DRIVING OUR WEATHER
HERE. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF SOCAL, AND A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS PROPAGATING OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS
THROUGH EVENING. PWAT VALUES AROUND 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL DO
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND,
BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE COMPARED
TO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
THAT TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME LIFT, WHICH HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES COULD REACH 150-250 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE. TIMING OF THE WAVE AND MORNING CLOUD OR EXISTING
SHOWERS WILL DICTATE STORM INTENSITY THAT AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE MAXIMIZED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IF CONDITIONS LINE UP
CORRECTLY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A DRY
AIR INTRUSION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT IF ANY TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEY TEND TO
OVERDUE THE DRYING IN THESE SITUATIONS, SO HESITANT TO SAY DRY
EVERYWHERE. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS ALWAYS. THE
EXACT LOCATION, COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS IS UNKNOWN AT
THIS TIME. DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE MURKY RIGHT NOW, WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING A LOT OF DRY AIR AND OTHERS SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER ON TERRAIN IS DISSIPATING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
TERRAIN IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND PORTIONS OF THE UINTAS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE TO AVIATORS
AROUND THESE STORMS. A FEW TEMPO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. KEPT PROB30 TSRA IN KEGE, KASE,
KTEX, AND VCSH AROUND KDRO DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THIS TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
LESS GUSTY MONDAY(ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS) WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON PUFFS UP TO 20 MPH AROUND THE REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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