013  
FXUS65 KGJT 302337  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
537 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE  
BEST CHANCES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
- SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 50  
MPH, SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BY MIDWEEK.  
 
- BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN MIDWEEK INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
CURRENTLY THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, SO  
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOISTURE  
THAT WAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS  
BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. CONVECTION HAS  
ALREADY INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND EXPECT SOME OF THAT  
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND FIRE STARTS WILL BE THE  
MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS. OVERNIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW  
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH WILL ADVECT MORE  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE  
OVERALL PATTERN TOMORROW OTHER THAN THE INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS  
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH  
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE  
SAME IMPACTS WILL BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL  
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA THANKS TO FLOW AROUND THESE  
TWO FEATURES. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY FORECAST NAEFS PWATS  
INDICATING VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY  
JULY VALUES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS VERY LIKELY UNDER AND  
NEAR THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN POSSIBLY DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AS THE  
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OUT WEST  
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THURSDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD  
AND HEAVIEST PRECIP. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE  
AREA AND THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE OPEN WAVE WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR  
THIS PRECIP. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER THAT  
MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS, WE CAN EXPECT A MORE  
STRATIFORM, SOAKING TYPE RAIN EVENT WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS BEING  
MORE LIKELY. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THESE FINER  
DETAILS. MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR FRIDAY AS THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP  
HEAVIER RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE DIVIDE AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS WHILE  
THE EC ONLY KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE. AGAIN, PLENTY OF  
TIME TO HAMMER OUT THIS DETAILS. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND  
WITH A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE FAVORED FOR THIS  
CONVECTION. PUT PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR KASE AND KEGE WHERE CHANCES  
ARE HIGHEST TO SEE SOME STORMS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET.  
EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED INTO THIS EVENING OVER KDRO,  
KEGE, KTEX, AND KGUC. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO  
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE  
EARLY PORTIONS OF TONIGHT, SOME 20-25 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT  
KASE, KMTJ, AND KGUC. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS MOSTLY DEVELOPING  
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KJS  
LONG TERM...TGR  
AVIATION...TGJT  
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